Potential First-Time All-Stars

Every season there are always a handful of players that make a big leap and become an All-Star for the first time in their careers. Despite the immense talent in the league, there have been an average of 5.5 first-time All-Stars in the past 4 seasons. Last year, we saw 4 new All-Stars, the least amount of newcomers in the last 4 seasons. In 2022, there were 7 new All-Stars, the most in that time span.

Based on the last 4 years, we can assume there will be between 4-7 players that will take that next step in their career. While it’s more likely the number will be closer to 4, every season has its unpredictable outcomes. I have listed 8 players that are most likely to become a first-time All-Star this season.

1. Victor Wembanyama – San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama had one the best rookie seasons in recent memory and became the rookie of the year by unanimous vote. He was also the runner-up in defensive player of the year averaging a league-high 3.6 blocks per game, including averaging and astounding 4.5 blocks per game after the all-star break. He is the second player to average 20 points and 10 rebounds as a rookie in the last 20 years along with Blake Griffin. He also has the most blocks per game as a rookie in over 30 years

Last season, the Spurs lacked a lead point guard that can create plays and get their teammates open. They signed Chris Paul this season, which gives them a primary playmaker that can get Wembanyama more opportunities. Paul will help mentor this young roster and help Victor grow his game.

Wembanyama’s size, length, fluidity, and defensive prowess (among many other traits/skills) gives him the potential to be an all-time great player, especially on the defensive end. With the added talent on the Spurs and personal development, Wembanyama will likely kick-start his all-star campaign this coming up season.

2. Jalen Williams – Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams took a big leap during his sophomore campaign and gained some buzz to be an all-star, but unfortunately missed out. His offensive production and efficiency skyrocketed making him one of the most efficient players in the league. He is the only player last season to score 10+ points per game while shooting 54% from the field and 42% from three. He is also becoming a stud on the defensive end, typically guarding the second or third best player on the opposing team.

The Thunder traded away Josh Giddey, which should open up more opportunities for Jalen to grow his offensive game. He helped lead the Thunder to the number one seed in a stacked western conference, and proved he is capable of being a star player alongside Shai and Chet. If Williams continues on this trajectory, it’s easy to picture him becoming an all-star in his third season.

3. Cade Cunningham – Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham has improved every year and while he missed out on winning the Rookie of the Year in 2021-22, he has shown flashes of being a superstar-caliber player. The first overall selection in the 2021 draft missed most of his second season due to injury but bounced back with a stellar third year. He averaged career highs in points and assists per game and had his most efficient season so far. This led to the Pistons giving Cade a max extension this summer.

The Detroit Pistons had the worst record this past year, but they added more talent and a new coaching staff this off-season to help steer this team in the right direction. Guys like Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr, Malik Beasley, and Paul Reed will help space the floor and provide veteran leadership to help the young players grow and develop. Cade Cunningham will likely benefit the most from the added talent, giving him easier opportunities to create plays for himself and his teammates. If Cade Cunningham can continue his improvement, he can easily take the next step to become an all-star this year.

4. Chet Holmgren – Oklahoma City Thunder

After missing his first season due to a Lisfranc injury, Chet Holmgren bounced back to have an outstanding rookie season. He was the most efficient rookie that had regular playing time and was top 3 in points, rebounds and blocks among rookies. For him to be on a team that has the MVP runner-up in SGA and rising star in Jalen Williams, it’s incredible the production and impact he had on a title-contending team.

As I mentioned earlier under Jalen Williams, the Thunder traded Josh Giddey which will allow Chet to get more shot attempts and have a more on-ball role. They also added Isaiah Hartenstein, who will be matched up with the big, physical players down low. This will allow Chet to guard smaller players than he did last year and to spread the court more on offense. With a bigger role and another good off-season, Chet Holmgren is primed to make a big leap next year, with a chance to make his first all-star appearance.

5. Alperen Sengun – Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets went 0.500 last year for the first time since James Harden was traded and Alperen Sengun was a major reason for that. Sengun has improved every season and was the best player on the Rockets this past season, averaging nearly a double-double. He’s great in the mid-range and post with a variety of moves and he’s a great passer for a big man. His efficiency took a slight dip this year, but that can be attributed to the lack of floor spacing and offensive talent the Rockets possess.

The addition of Reed Sheppard from this year’s draft can immediately open up the floor for Sengun to operate in the post and in mid-range more effectively. The addition of Steven Adams will allow Sengun to expand his game out to the three-point line more often. As this team continues its internal development and adding more talent on the roster, this gives more chances for Sengun to thrive and be more of an offensive hub as a big man. If Sengun continues to improve and becomes more efficient on offense, he can make a case to become an all-star next season.

6. Franz Wagner – Orlando Magic

Franz Wagner has improved every year he’s been in the league and has proven to be an integral part of the Magic’s young core. He’s excellent at driving to the basket and can finish with a variety of moves. He is also effective when posting up and is a great passer. Franz doesn’t get much notoriety on the defensive end, but he is one of the most underrated defenders in the league.

His efficiency when shooting the three dipped this past year, but that seems to be an outlier. He shot over 35% during his first two years and his free-throw percentage indicates he will be a good shooter. Franz Wagner is versatile on both ends of the floor and helped the Magic end last season as the 5th seed in the eastern conference. If he can continue his improvement and become more efficient from mid-range and from three, he can become the superstar-level player that most people believe he can be.

7. Brandon Miller – Charlotte Hornets

When everyone talks about rookies from last year, they mostly just talk about Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, but Brandon Miller had a fantastic rookie season as well. He was second among rookies in points per game while shooting an efficient 37.3% from three. He’s also great at cutting to the basket and scoring in transition. He has solidified himself as a franchise cornerstone for the Charlotte Hornets. Brandon Miller often gets compared to Paul George, and for good reason. His size, offensive skillset and defensive potential prove that he could reach that level of stardom.

The Hornets were one of the worst teams last year but showed potential throughout the season. They suffered injuries to a couple of their key young players that kept them out for most of the season, making it difficult for them to gel and gain chemistry on the court. With a new coaching staff and everyone healthy, they are likely to take a step in the right direction. This will give Brandon Miller a good opportunity to grow his game and maybe even give the Hornets a chance to fight for a play-in spot.

8. Jalen Johnson – Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson had a breakout season with the Atlanta Hawks in his third year in the league. He was able to get consistent minutes and solidify himself in the starting lineup. With the larger role, he took a big leap in his development and set career high numbers in every category. Typically, players that get a larger role with more shot opportunities, their efficiency gets worse. However, Jalen had a massive jump in both three-point and free throw percentage, both of which are career high numbers.

The Atlanta Hawks traded away Dejounte Murray, who led the team in field goal attempts, and opted to get younger players that may fit the team’s style of play. With the offensive production that Murray produced now gone, there’s more of an opportunity for Jalen to take another big leap in his game. His versatility on both ends of the floor should allow him to be the second option on the team behind Trae Young, which may lead him to his first all-star appearance.

Honorable Mentions:

Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers

Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors

Coby White – Chicago Bulls

Sources:

Basketball Reference; NBA.com; Statmuse.com