Title Contending Tiers

This ranking is based on the likelihood of each team winning the championship. This is slightly different than a typical power ranking. A lot of variables were considered for this ranking including regular season performance, playoff experience, roster construction, and injuries. Some players are projected to be healthy around playoff time, so I assumed those players will be fully healthy and ready for the playoffs.

The teams included are projected and possible playoff teams. These teams are divided up into 5 tiers with Tier 1 being split into 1A and 1B:

• True Contenders – Best of the best, and completely ready to win the title.
• Flawed Contenders – Could possibly win the title, with some luck on their side.
• Almost in Contention – They could make a deep playoff run but are a piece or two away from being a real contender.
• Possible Playoff Run – They have the tools to make a playoff run but have major flaws.
• 1st Round Exit – Can challenge any team, but not ready to make noise in the playoffs.
• Play-In Only – Not good enough to make it out of the play-in.

Tier 1A: True Contenders

1. Boston Celtics

The Celtics have been dominant all season and have one of the best starting units in the league and a deep bench. They have the number 1 offense by a wide margin, and they have the second-best defense in the league. Their plus/minus and net ratings are both over 11, which hasn’t been done since the 2016-17 Warriors team. This could be the year Jayson Tatum and the Celtics get over the hump and win the championship. The only concern with this team is their clutch time play, where they seem to make poor decisions and play hero ball. 

2. Denver Nuggets

For the first half of the season, it seemed as if the Nuggets were just on cruise-control. However, since the all-star break, they have flipped the script. They have been on a hot streak and Nikola Jokic is looking as dominant as ever. Jokic is in the running for another MVP award averaging nearly a triple-double and leading the team to the top of the West. They return most of their players from their championship run last year, but their lack of depth may pose problems for them as they look to become back-to-back champs.

Tier 1B: Flawed Contenders

3. Los Angeles Clippers

Health has been an issue with this Clippers team throughout the entire season. When fully healthy, they are a dangerous team and can beat anyone. They have the deepest bench in the league and can go 13 deep if they have to. They’ve had a top 5 offense all season, shooting very efficiently from the floor. However, their defense has been inconsistent even with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George at the helm. Ty Lue is one of the best coaches in the league and exploits opposing team’s weaknesses every chance he gets until they adjust. As long as they can stay healthy and figure out their defensive consistency, Kawhi and PG can take over in the playoffs and lead this team to their first finals appearance in franchise history.

4. New York Knicks

After trading for OG Anunoby, the Knicks went 15-2 and had the best defense in the league during that span. Since then, they have been ravaged by injuries losing 3 starters for most of the second half of the year. Jalen Brunson is having a career year and has kept this team afloat to avoid the play-in. With Thibodeau as their head coach, they play with toughness and physicality, and they are relentless every single game. However, I question their health, offense in the playoffs when Brunson is off the court, and who will be their consistent secondary playmaker. If the Knicks get fully healthy for the playoffs, they will be the biggest challenge to the Celtics to make it out of the East.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder

This Thunder team has exploded onto the scene, and after missing the playoffs last year they have been at the top of the West all season. They boast a top 5 offense and defense and have been one of the most consistent teams in the league, as SGA says, “My whole life is consistent”. SGA is in the running for the MVP award and leads the best young core in the league. The biggest concerns for this team are strength and depth in the frontcourt, and playoff experience. This season will be their first playoff appearance for this group of guys, and experience in the playoffs play a big role in a title run. They have the talent and capability to make the conference finals, but don’t be surprised if they get knocked out in the first round.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The best defense in the NBA by far, with Rudy Gobert poised to win DPOY (defensive player of the year). The Timberwolves have athletic, versatile, defensive playmakers at almost every position and pose a threat to every team they play. Their offense is what’s holding them back as they have been bottom half of the league. They lack a secondary playmaker behind Mike Conley to keep their offense flowing and stable when he’s off the court. Anthony Edwards has really taken that next step and proven he can be that number 1 guy on a winning team, but the question is if he’s ready to be the guy to take over in the playoffs. This team has some playoff experience as they had a first round exit last season, but they haven’t proven to be ready for a championship run just yet.

Tier 2: Almost in Contention

7. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have had an interesting season to say the least. They fired their head coach mid-season even though they were 30-13 and 2nd in the East. The Doc Rivers coaching era got off to a rough start and also created drama during the all-star break. Amid this unusual season, Giannis did not let his team plummet down the standings. He is having another great season and is now back to being 2nd in the East. They have a great offense, and it seems like they haven’t even hit their ceiling on that end of the floor. Their defense, on the other hand, has struggled all year. There was a small stretch after the all-star break where they were top 2 in both offense and defense, but that was a very small sample size. If they can put it together on defense consistently, they can beat anyone.

8. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have been consistent all year and solid in every facet of the game. They are top 10 in both offense and defense. The Pelicans have experimented with “Point Zion” this season, and it’s paying off as he has expanded his game to become a solid playmaker. They still lack a true point guard, someone who can be the primary playmaker for this team. The biggest concern for this team is they don’t have a true superstar player; a number 1 option that can go get a bucket during crunch time. Can Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson be that guy? They haven’t proven to take on that responsibility. Regardless, this team will be tough to beat in the playoffs.

9. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers identity is on the defensive side of the ball. Their two big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley make it difficult to score in the paint and they both average double digits in rebounds. Donovan Mitchell is playing some of his best basketball of his career on both sides of the ball. The Cavs have a lot of talent, but their offense is inconsistent, but they have shown they have the ability to have a great offense. They have struggled with keeping guys healthy throughout the year too, but they have been able to keep home advantage for the playoffs. If they can get healthy for the playoffs and get a rhythm going on offense, they will be hard to stop.

Tier 3: Possible Playoff Run

10. Miami Heat

I struggled on where to place the Heat in this list. They have proven in the past 2 years that the regular season doesn’t matter for them. The entered the playoffs as the 9th or 10th seed and still made the conference finals and finals. This season, they have also struggled with injuries but have still boasted a top 10 defense. On the other hand, their offense is bottom 10 and are one of the slowest teams in the league. When you have Eric Spoelstra (the best coach in the league), Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, you can’t count them out of the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if they pull of some upsets again this year.

11. Phoenix Suns

The Suns are another team that have been struggling with injuries all season. When Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal all play together, their offense is hard to stop, and they are a very efficient shooting team. They are a deeper team than what most people lead you to believe, but they sometimes struggle with their team chemistry and consistency on the court. If they can stay healthy and work on their chemistry and consistency, they have the star power and experience to make a deep run in the playoffs.

12. Sacramento Kings

Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are having the best seasons of their careers so far. The former is leading the league in rebounds and triple-doubles (both career highs), while the latter is posting career highs in points, rebounds and steals (2nd in the league). The Kings have been a good offensive team that plays fast and with physicality. They’re a little more inconsistent on the defensive end but have shown they can play at a high level. They don’t have a deep bench, but they have experience and talent to challenge anyone in the West.

13. Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic is having his best season so far, leading the league in point per game at 34.1. However, the Mavericks have had an up and down season. Before trading for Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington, their defense was in the bottom 10 of the league and had a top 15 offense. Since the trade, they improved on both sides of the ball, especially on defense even though there have been inconsistencies. They are a top 3 offense now and are a very efficient team from close range with Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II shooting 70+% from the field. They are ramping up and playing great basketball leading up to the playoffs, but they need to be a more consistent and focused defensive unit.

14. Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid was having his best season yet and was the favorite to win his 2nd MVP until a season ending injury. Tyrese Maxey has emerged as a star and a number 2 option behind Embiid. When Embiid was healthy the 76ers were top 10 in both offense and defense and was destined to received home court advantage. Since the injury, they have dropped off on both ends of the court and fallen into the play-in. They lack frontcourt depth and a secondary playmaker. Embiid is set to return within a few weeks, but he might need time to shake off some rust. With a fully healthy team and added wing depth, they can be a force in the playoffs.

15. Los Angeles Lakers

Since mid-January, the Lakers have had a top 5 offense dominating in the paint and are very efficient. On the other side of the ball, they have been one of the worst teams all year. They aren’t a cohesive group on that end and just don’t have many defensive minded players. Playoff experience plays a big role in making title run. LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be able to carry this team and make a deep run like they did last year, but the West is much more difficult this year.

Tier 4: 1st Round Exit

16. Orlando Magic

The Magic are one of the most improved teams from last year, from 13th in the East to currently sitting in 5th place this year. They have been the 3rd best defense in the league and have athletic, versatile defenders at every position. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner keep improving year after year, and Jalen Suggs has become a pivotal piece for this young core. Their offense is a different story, where they rank bottom 10 in the league. They are a bad shooting team and lack a true point guard and primary playmaker. This will also be their first experience in the playoffs together, which will prove to be a valuable learning experience for this team. Their defense will pose challenges for any team they face in the playoffs, but their youth, lack of playoff experience, and poor offense will keep them from making a deep playoff run. The Magic’s future is very bright.

17. Indiana Pacers

The identity of the Pacers is a fast, and efficient offense. They have been dominant on offense ranking 2nd in the league, leading the league in FG% and assists. They play at lightning speed with the 2nd fastest pace as they get downhill as fast as they can to create quality open looks. They make all the right passes led by Tyrese Haliburton, who leads the league in assists. Their downfall as a team is their defense, where they rank in the bottom 10 overall. They don’t have any real defensive threat or identity on that end. Their offense has taken a slight hit as since trading away Buddy Hield and the injury to Ben Mathurin. They aren’t ready to be a real threat in the playoffs, but their offense will challenge anyone who faces them.

Tier 5: Play-In Only

18. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are in the middle of trying to contend for a championship while developing young talent, and it’s very difficult to find a balance to achieve both. They have kept their championship core intact, but they have all regressed. Steph Curry is still one of the best in the league right now, and Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski has emerged as future cornerstones of the franchise. They are a very inconsistent team on both ends of the floor, mainly due to youth development and the structure of the team. They are good on offense and have shown flashes they can be a good team on defense as well, but the sample size is small. They only way I see them making a deep run in the playoffs is if Steph Curry takes over and goes on a hot streak.

19. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have been stuck in no man’s land for a few years now. They aren’t good enough to make the playoffs, but they aren’t bad enough to get a quality pick in the draft. Injuries have piled up over the years, so they haven’t been able to play to their full potential. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine have led this team to the play-in, as DeRozan has been incredible in clutch situations, and Coby White has improved significantly this year to be in the running for MIP (most improved player). They have talent to win games, but the team hasn’t been constructed well enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

20. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have a great offense. They play at a fast pace and get the most shots up across the league per game. While they aren’t the most efficient shooting team, they still score the 5th most points led by Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Their defense should be better than they are, but they are one of the worse defensive units in the league giving up 120.7 points per game. They are going to need big games from Young and Murray to get them past the play-in games.

21. Houston Rockets

The Rockets have been on fire recently and are closing the gap on the Warriors for the 10th seed in the West. They have a chance to make the play-in, which is why they are on this list. Alperen Sengun has taken that next step to become a star for the Rockets, and while Sengun has missed time due to injury, Jalen Green has stepped up and is playing the best basketball of his career. Over the course of the season, their defense has been surprisingly good ranking top 10 in the league, but their offense has been mediocre. In the month of March, however, they have gone 11-1 and have been top 5 in offense and defense during that span. Momentum is on their side to push their way into the play-in, but I don’t think they are ready to make noise in the post-season with their inexperience and offensive consistency.